Le Havre
Game ended in draw.
1 - 1
FT
Auxerre
Postmatch editorial
Draw found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was Le Havre 1-1 Auxerre. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
Lassine Sinayoko put the first mark on the match 15', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Le Havre led Shots on target 3-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. Auxerre also shaded Total shots 10-12.
Before kickoff, our model made Le Havre the likeliest result at 40.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Le Havre at 40.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.3%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Le Havre
40.4%
Market result
Le Havre
40.8%
BTTS
No
50.3%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Le HavreLe Havre
Auxerre
3
2
Total shots
AuxerreLe Havre
Auxerre
10
12
Possession
Le HavreLe Havre
Auxerre
53%
47%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.