Postmatch editorial
Le Havre settled a divided pre-match read
The final score was Le Havre 2-1 Angers SCO. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
The decisive turn arrived late when Noam Obougou scored 81' for Le Havre.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Le Havre led Shots on target 6-3. Le Havre also shaded Total shots 11-9.
Before kickoff, our model made Angers SCO the likeliest result at 36.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Le Havre at 41.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.0%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Mansionbet. The market was offering 3.75 against a fair line of 3.51. That translated to an edge of 6.8% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Angers SCO
36.4%
Market result
Le Havre
41.7%
BTTS
No
51.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Le HavreLe Havre
Angers SCO
6
3
Total shots
Le HavreLe Havre
Angers SCO
11
9
Possession
Le Havre
Angers SCO
50%
50%
Model edge
2
Mansionbet
Market odd
3.75
Fair odd
3.51
Edge
6.8%
Stake
0.54u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.