Postmatch editorial

Lazio bent the night away from the script

The final score was Lazio 1-0 AC Milan. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

Gustav Isaksen put the first mark on the match 26', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: AC Milan led Corners 1-9, even though the scoreboard went another way. AC Milan also shaded Total shots 7-17.

Before kickoff, our model made AC Milan the likeliest result at 49.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced AC Milan at 54.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (55.6%), and that angle landed.

Prediction checks

Model result

AC Milan

49.0%

Miss

Market result

AC Milan

54.5%

Miss

BTTS

No

55.6%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

AC Milan

Lazio

AC Milan

1

9

Total shots

AC Milan

Lazio

AC Milan

7

17

Shots on target

AC Milan

Lazio

AC Milan

2

3

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.