Postmatch editorial

Draw found the margin in a finely priced match

The final score was Latvia 1-1 Albania. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Antonijs Cernomordijs put the first mark on the match 29', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Albania led Possession 33%-67%, even though the scoreboard went another way. Albania also shaded Total shots 8-13.

Before kickoff, our model made Albania the likeliest result at 36.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Albania at 55.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.8%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.86 against a fair line of 1.80. That translated to an edge of 3.3% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Albania

36.4%

Miss

Market result

Albania

55.2%

Miss

BTTS

No

51.8%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Possession

Albania

Latvia

Albania

33%

67%

Total shots

Albania

Latvia

Albania

8

13

Shots on target

Latvia

Latvia

Albania

4

3

Model edge

2

1xbet

Market odd

1.86

Fair odd

1.80

Edge

3.3%

Stake

0.99u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.