Postmatch editorial

Kyrgyz Republic flipped the prices on their head

The final score was Kyrgyz Republic 3-1 Qatar. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

The decisive turn arrived late when Alimardon Shukurov scored 90+3' for Kyrgyz Republic.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Kyrgyz Republic led Total shots 15-9. Kyrgyz Republic also shaded Shots on target 5-4.

Before kickoff, our model made No clear call the likeliest result at n/a, while the median bookmaker line priced Qatar at 64.1% implied.

Prediction checks

Market result

Qatar

64.1%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Kyrgyz Republic

Kyrgyz Republic

Qatar

15

9

Shots on target

Kyrgyz Republic

Kyrgyz Republic

Qatar

5

4

Possession

Qatar

Kyrgyz Republic

Qatar

45%

55%

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.