Postmatch editorial

Draw settled a divided pre-match read

The final score was Kosovo 1-1 Switzerland. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

The late equaliser came from Florent Muslija 74', which kept the game level at the finish.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Kosovo led Corners 3-1, even though the scoreboard went another way. Kosovo also shaded Total shots 11-6.

Before kickoff, our model made Switzerland the likeliest result at 43.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Switzerland at 54.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.5%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Marathon. The market was offering 2.01 against a fair line of 1.94. That translated to an edge of 3.6% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Switzerland

43.5%

Miss

Market result

Switzerland

54.6%

Miss

BTTS

No

51.5%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

Kosovo

Kosovo

Switzerland

3

1

Total shots

Kosovo

Kosovo

Switzerland

11

6

Shots on target

Kosovo

Kosovo

Switzerland

4

3

Model edge

2

Marathon

Market odd

2.01

Fair odd

1.94

Edge

3.6%

Stake

0.89u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.