Postmatch editorial

Gambia settled a divided pre-match read

The final score was Kenya 1-3 Gambia. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Sheriff Sinyan put the first mark on the match 12', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Gambia led Shots on target 4-8. Kenya also shaded Corners 12-3.

Before kickoff, our model made Gambia the likeliest result at 37.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Kenya at 45.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (59.2%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Unibet. The market was offering 2.80 against a fair line of 2.66. That translated to an edge of 5.3% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Gambia

37.4%

Hit

Market result

Kenya

45.5%

Miss

BTTS

No

59.2%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Gambia

Kenya

Gambia

4

8

Corners

Kenya

Kenya

Gambia

12

3

Possession

Kenya

Kenya

Gambia

63%

37%

Model edge

1

Unibet

Market odd

2.80

Fair odd

2.66

Edge

5.3%

Stake

0.68u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.