Postmatch editorial

Gabon found the margin in a finely priced match

The final score was Kenya 1-2 Gabon. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang put the first mark on the match 16', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Kenya led Total shots 12-5, even though the scoreboard went another way. Kenya also shaded Corners 6-1.

Before kickoff, our model made Gabon the likeliest result at 37.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Kenya at 37.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (58.1%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Marathon. The market was offering 3.34 against a fair line of 3.14. That translated to an edge of 6.4% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Gabon

37.1%

Hit

Market result

Kenya

37.0%

Miss

BTTS

No

58.1%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Kenya

Kenya

Gabon

12

5

Corners

Kenya

Kenya

Gabon

6

1

Shots on target

Gabon

Kenya

Gabon

2

3

Model edge

2

Marathon

Market odd

3.34

Fair odd

3.14

Edge

6.4%

Stake

0.57u

That ticket matched the final outcome.