Postmatch editorial

The script held and Juventus delivered it

The final score was Juventus 4-0 Pisa. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Jérémie Boga scored 90+3' for Juventus.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Juventus led Shots on target 7-2. Juventus also shaded Total shots 25-7.

Before kickoff, our model made Juventus the likeliest result at 68.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Juventus at 82.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (62.0%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Mansionbet. The market was offering 1.25 against a fair line of 1.24. That translated to an edge of 0.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Juventus

68.0%

Hit

Market result

Juventus

82.0%

Hit

BTTS

No

62.0%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Juventus

Juventus

Pisa

7

2

Total shots

Juventus

Juventus

Pisa

25

7

Possession

Juventus

Juventus

Pisa

60%

40%

Model edge

1

Mansionbet

Market odd

1.25

Fair odd

1.24

Edge

0.8%

Stake

1.99u

That ticket matched the final outcome.