Juventus
Fiorentina won after full-time.
0 - 2
FT
Fiorentina
Postmatch editorial
Fiorentina flipped the prices on their head
The final score was Juventus 0-2 Fiorentina. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
The decisive turn arrived late when Rolando Mandragora scored 83' for Fiorentina.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Juventus led Shots on target 9-4, even though the scoreboard went another way. Juventus also shaded Total shots 26-10.
Before kickoff, our model made Juventus the likeliest result at 67.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Juventus at 76.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (54.2%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Betfair. The market was offering 12.00 against a fair line of 10.60. That translated to an edge of 13.2% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Juventus
67.0%
Market result
Juventus
76.3%
BTTS
No
54.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
JuventusJuventus
Fiorentina
9
4
Total shots
JuventusJuventus
Fiorentina
26
10
Corners
JuventusJuventus
Fiorentina
6
2
Model edge
2
Betfair
Market odd
12.00
Fair odd
10.60
Edge
13.2%
Stake
0.26u
That ticket matched the final outcome.