Postmatch editorial

The script held and Juventus delivered it

The final score was Juventus 2-0 Bologna. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Jonathan David put the first mark on the match 2', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Juventus led Shots on target 4-0. Juventus also shaded Corners 6-1.

Before kickoff, our model made Juventus the likeliest result at 58.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Juventus at 69.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (50.3%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.56 against a fair line of 1.53. That translated to an edge of 2.0% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Juventus

58.1%

Hit

Market result

Juventus

69.0%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

50.3%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Juventus

Juventus

Bologna

4

0

Corners

Juventus

Juventus

Bologna

6

1

Total shots

Juventus

Juventus

Bologna

14

7

Model edge

1

1xbet

Market odd

1.56

Fair odd

1.53

Edge

2.0%

Stake

1.25u

That ticket matched the final outcome.