Postmatch editorial

Iraq flipped the prices on their head

The final score was Jordan 0-1 Iraq. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.

The decisive turn arrived late when Sajad Jassim scored 77' for Iraq.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Iraq led Shots on target 0-4. Iraq also shaded Possession 41%-59%.

Before kickoff, our model made No clear call the likeliest result at n/a, while the median bookmaker line priced Jordan at 45.5% implied.

Prediction checks

Market result

Jordan

45.5%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Iraq

Jordan

Iraq

0

4

Possession

Iraq

Jordan

Iraq

41%

59%

Total shots

Jordan

Jordan

Iraq

9

7

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.