Postmatch editorial
Jamaica made the numbers look right
The final score was Jamaica 3-0 Guatemala. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
J. Russell put the first mark on the match 26', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Jamaica led Shots on target 8-2. Jamaica also shaded Total shots 18-5.
Before kickoff, our model made Jamaica the likeliest result at 47.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Jamaica at 49.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (55.6%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Bet365. The market was offering 4.10 against a fair line of 3.82. That translated to an edge of 7.3% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Jamaica
47.8%
Market result
Jamaica
49.8%
BTTS
Yes
55.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
JamaicaJamaica
Guatemala
8
2
Total shots
JamaicaJamaica
Guatemala
18
5
Corners
JamaicaJamaica
Guatemala
5
1
Model edge
2
Bet365
Market odd
4.10
Fair odd
3.82
Edge
7.3%
Stake
0.49u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.