Postmatch editorial
Jamaica turned the pre-match edge into points
The final score was Jamaica 1-0 Dominican Republic. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Shamar Nicholson put the first mark on the match 16', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Jamaica led Shots on target 2-1. Jamaica also shaded Total shots 12-6.
Before kickoff, our model made Jamaica the likeliest result at 50.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced Jamaica at 84.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.2%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Dafabet. The market was offering 1.24 against a fair line of 1.23. That translated to an edge of 0.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Jamaica
50.0%
Market result
Jamaica
84.7%
BTTS
No
51.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
JamaicaJamaica
Dominican Republic
2
1
Total shots
JamaicaJamaica
Dominican Republic
12
6
Corners
Dominican RepublicJamaica
Dominican Republic
3
5
Model edge
1
Dafabet
Market odd
1.24
Fair odd
1.23
Edge
0.8%
Stake
2.03u
That ticket matched the final outcome.