Italy
Italy won after full-time.
2 - 0
FT
Northern Ireland
Postmatch editorial
Italy made the numbers look right
The final score was Italy 2-0 Northern Ireland. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Moise Kean scored 80' for Italy.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Italy led Shots on target 8-1. Italy also shaded Total shots 19-8.
Before kickoff, our model made Italy the likeliest result at 71.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Italy at 79.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (55.3%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Italy
71.2%
Market result
Italy
79.4%
BTTS
No
55.3%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
ItalyItaly
Northern Ireland
8
1
Total shots
ItalyItaly
Northern Ireland
19
8
Corners
ItalyItaly
Northern Ireland
12
3
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.