Postmatch editorial

Israel found the margin in a finely priced match

The final score was Israel 4-1 Moldova. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

The decisive turn arrived late when Vladyslav Baboglo scored 88' for Israel.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Israel led Shots on target 9-1. Israel also shaded Total shots 26-4.

Before kickoff, our model made Moldova the likeliest result at 37.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Israel at 72.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (54.2%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Betfair. The market was offering 13.00 against a fair line of 11.44. That translated to an edge of 13.6% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Moldova

37.3%

Miss

Market result

Israel

72.5%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

54.2%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Israel

Israel

Moldova

9

1

Total shots

Israel

Israel

Moldova

26

4

Possession

Israel

Israel

Moldova

73%

27%

Model edge

2

Betfair

Market odd

13.00

Fair odd

11.44

Edge

13.6%

Stake

0.26u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.