Postmatch editorial

The script held and Iraq delivered it

The final score was Iraq 2-1 United Arab Emirates. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

United Arab Emirates struck first through Caio 52', but Iraq recovered and flipped the match.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: United Arab Emirates led Shots on target 2-4, even though the scoreboard went another way. United Arab Emirates also shaded Total shots 10-13.

Before kickoff, our model made Iraq the likeliest result at 37.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced Iraq at 40.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.2%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 1xbet. The market was offering 3.77 against a fair line of 3.53. That translated to an edge of 6.8% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Iraq

37.6%

Hit

Market result

Iraq

40.7%

Hit

BTTS

No

51.2%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

United Arab Emirates

Iraq

United Arab Emirates

2

4

Total shots

United Arab Emirates

Iraq

United Arab Emirates

10

13

Corners

Iraq

Iraq

United Arab Emirates

4

3

Model edge

2

1xbet

Market odd

3.77

Fair odd

3.53

Edge

6.8%

Stake

0.52u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.