Postmatch editorial

Iraq turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Iraq 1-0 Indonesia. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Zidane Iqbal scored 76' for Iraq.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Iraq led Shots on target 2-1. Indonesia also shaded Total shots 7-9.

Before kickoff, our model made Iraq the likeliest result at 55.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Iraq at 56.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.3%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 188bet. The market was offering 1.92 against a fair line of 1.86. That translated to an edge of 3.2% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Iraq

55.9%

Hit

Market result

Iraq

56.5%

Hit

BTTS

No

50.3%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Iraq

Iraq

Indonesia

2

1

Total shots

Indonesia

Iraq

Indonesia

7

9

Corners

Indonesia

Iraq

Indonesia

3

4

Model edge

1

188bet

Market odd

1.92

Fair odd

1.86

Edge

3.2%

Stake

0.95u

That ticket matched the final outcome.