Postmatch editorial

One side of the split call landed for Iraq

The final score was Iraq 2-1 Bolivia. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Ali Al-Hamadi put the first mark on the match 10', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Bolivia led Corners 2-16, even though the scoreboard went another way. Bolivia also shaded Shots on target 3-6.

Before kickoff, our model made Iraq the likeliest result at 60.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced Bolivia at 40.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (53.9%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on X at Bet365. The market was offering 3.30 against a fair line of 3.11. That translated to an edge of 6.1% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Iraq

60.9%

Hit

Market result

Bolivia

40.0%

Miss

BTTS

No

53.9%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

Bolivia

Iraq

Bolivia

2

16

Shots on target

Bolivia

Iraq

Bolivia

3

6

Total shots

Bolivia

Iraq

Bolivia

6

15

Model edge

X

Bet365

Market odd

3.30

Fair odd

3.11

Edge

6.1%

Stake

0.57u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.