Iran
United States won after full-time.
0 - 1
FT
United States
Postmatch editorial
United States made the numbers look right
The final score was Iran 0-1 United States. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Christian Pulisic put the first mark on the match 38', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: United States led Shots on target 1-5. United States also shaded Total shots 4-12.
Before kickoff, our model made United States the likeliest result at 39.6%, while the median bookmaker line priced United States at 51.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (51.8%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Nordicbet. The market was offering 2.10 against a fair line of 2.02. That translated to an edge of 4.0% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
United States
39.6%
Market result
United States
51.3%
BTTS
No
51.8%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
United StatesIran
United States
1
5
Total shots
United StatesIran
United States
4
12
Corners
United StatesIran
United States
1
5
Model edge
2
Nordicbet
Market odd
2.10
Fair odd
2.02
Edge
4.0%
Stake
0.86u
That ticket matched the final outcome.