Postmatch editorial

The prices said close and the pitch agreed

The final score was Inter 1-1 Hellas Verona. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.

The late equaliser came from Kieron Bowie 90+1', which kept the game level at the finish.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Inter led Possession 74%-26%, even though the scoreboard went another way. Inter also shaded Corners 10-2.

Before kickoff, our model made Inter the likeliest result at 75.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Inter at 73.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (58.4%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Mansionbet. The market was offering 13.00 against a fair line of 11.44. That translated to an edge of 13.6% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Inter

75.5%

Miss

Market result

Inter

73.5%

Miss

BTTS

No

58.4%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Possession

Inter

Inter

Hellas Verona

74%

26%

Corners

Inter

Inter

Hellas Verona

10

2

Shots on target

Inter

Inter

Hellas Verona

6

5

Model edge

2

Mansionbet

Market odd

13.00

Fair odd

11.44

Edge

13.6%

Stake

0.26u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.