Postmatch editorial

Inter turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Inter 3-0 Cagliari. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Piotr Zieliński scored 90+2' for Inter.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Inter led Shots on target 5-1. Inter also shaded Total shots 18-10.

Before kickoff, our model made Inter the likeliest result at 73.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Inter at 80.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (58.7%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.27 against a fair line of 1.25. That translated to an edge of 1.6% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Inter

73.1%

Hit

Market result

Inter

80.6%

Hit

BTTS

No

58.7%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Inter

Inter

Cagliari

5

1

Total shots

Inter

Inter

Cagliari

18

10

Corners

Cagliari

Inter

Cagliari

4

9

Model edge

1

1xbet

Market odd

1.27

Fair odd

1.25

Edge

1.6%

Stake

1.92u

That ticket matched the final outcome.