Postmatch editorial

Saudi Arabia found the margin in a finely priced match

The final score was Indonesia 2-3 Saudi Arabia. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Indonesia struck first through Kevin Diks 11', but Saudi Arabia recovered and flipped the match.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Saudi Arabia led Shots on target 5-10. Saudi Arabia also shaded Total shots 10-17.

Before kickoff, our model made Indonesia the likeliest result at 42.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Saudi Arabia at 66.7% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.7%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Bet365. The market was offering 1.65 against a fair line of 1.61. That translated to an edge of 2.5% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Indonesia

42.1%

Miss

Market result

Saudi Arabia

66.7%

Hit

BTTS

No

50.7%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Saudi Arabia

Indonesia

Saudi Arabia

5

10

Total shots

Saudi Arabia

Indonesia

Saudi Arabia

10

17

Corners

Saudi Arabia

Indonesia

Saudi Arabia

3

5

Model edge

2

Bet365

Market odd

1.65

Fair odd

1.61

Edge

2.5%

Stake

1.13u

That ticket matched the final outcome.