Postmatch editorial

Ilves upset the pre-match prices

The final score was Ilves 4-3 AZ Alkmaar. It landed away from the bookmaker favourite and counts as a genuine market upset.

Roope Riski put the first mark on the match 8', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: AZ Alkmaar led Possession 35%-65%, even though the scoreboard went another way. AZ Alkmaar also shaded Total shots 14-23.

Before kickoff, the median bookmaker prices made AZ Alkmaar the favourite at 75.2% implied probability. That market lean missed.

Market check

Market result

AZ Alkmaar

75.2%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Possession

AZ Alkmaar

Ilves

AZ Alkmaar

35%

65%

Total shots

AZ Alkmaar

Ilves

AZ Alkmaar

14

23

Corners

AZ Alkmaar

Ilves

AZ Alkmaar

4

9