Postmatch editorial

Ukraine made the numbers look right

The final score was Iceland 3-5 Ukraine. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Oleg Ocheretko scored 88' for Ukraine.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Iceland led Possession 65%-35%, even though the scoreboard went another way. Iceland also shaded Corners 4-2.

Before kickoff, our model made Ukraine the likeliest result at 37.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Ukraine at 44.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (57.1%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Bet365. The market was offering 2.55 against a fair line of 2.43. That translated to an edge of 4.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Ukraine

37.3%

Hit

Market result

Ukraine

44.2%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

57.1%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Possession

Iceland

Iceland

Ukraine

65%

35%

Corners

Iceland

Iceland

Ukraine

4

2

Shots on target

Ukraine

Iceland

Ukraine

5

7

Model edge

2

Bet365

Market odd

2.55

Fair odd

2.43

Edge

4.9%

Stake

0.70u

That ticket matched the final outcome.