Iceland
Game ended in draw.
2 - 2
FT
France
Postmatch editorial
The prices said close and the pitch agreed
The final score was Iceland 2-2 France. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.
The late equaliser came from Kristian Hlynsson 70', which kept the game level at the finish.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: France led Shots on target 2-9, even though the scoreboard went another way. France also shaded Total shots 4-20.
Before kickoff, our model made France the likeliest result at 58.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced France at 76.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (53.8%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 1xbet. The market was offering 1.35 against a fair line of 1.33. That translated to an edge of 1.5% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
France
58.0%
Market result
France
76.9%
BTTS
Yes
53.8%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
FranceIceland
France
2
9
Total shots
FranceIceland
France
4
20
Corners
FranceIceland
France
0
9
Model edge
2
1xbet
Market odd
1.35
Fair odd
1.33
Edge
1.5%
Stake
1.60u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.