Hungary
Republic of Ireland won after full-time.
2 - 3
FT
Republic of Ireland
Postmatch editorial
Republic of Ireland flipped the prices on their head
The final score was Hungary 2-3 Republic of Ireland. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Hungary struck first through Dániel Lukács 3', but Republic of Ireland recovered and flipped the match.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Hungary led Corners 8-2, even though the scoreboard went another way. Hungary also shaded Total shots 18-10.
Before kickoff, our model made Hungary the likeliest result at 54.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Hungary at 49.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (50.7%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Hungary
54.5%
Market result
Hungary
49.6%
BTTS
Yes
50.7%
Key stats
Match numbers
Corners
HungaryHungary
Republic of Ireland
8
2
Total shots
HungaryHungary
Republic of Ireland
18
10
Shots on target
HungaryHungary
Republic of Ireland
7
5
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.