Postmatch editorial

Honduras made the numbers look right

The final score was Honduras 3-0 Haiti. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Rigoberto Rivas put the first mark on the match 18', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Honduras led Shots on target 8-3. Honduras also shaded Corners 7-2.

Before kickoff, our model made Honduras the likeliest result at 40.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Honduras at 46.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (54.8%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Betfair. The market was offering 4.75 against a fair line of 4.39. That translated to an edge of 8.2% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Honduras

40.4%

Hit

Market result

Honduras

46.9%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

54.8%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Honduras

Honduras

Haiti

8

3

Corners

Honduras

Honduras

Haiti

7

2

Total shots

Honduras

Honduras

Haiti

20

12

Model edge

2

Betfair

Market odd

4.75

Fair odd

4.39

Edge

8.2%

Stake

0.49u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.