Postmatch editorial
The script held and Honduras delivered it
The final score was Honduras 3-1 Cuba. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Cuba struck first through M. Reyes 22', but Honduras recovered and flipped the match.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Honduras led Shots on target 8-1. Honduras also shaded Total shots 24-2.
Before kickoff, our model made Honduras the likeliest result at 72.1%, while the median bookmaker line priced Honduras at 90.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (59.8%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Dafabet. The market was offering 1.16 against a fair line of 1.15. That translated to an edge of 0.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Honduras
72.1%
Market result
Honduras
90.9%
BTTS
No
59.8%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
HondurasHonduras
Cuba
8
1
Total shots
HondurasHonduras
Cuba
24
2
Corners
HondurasHonduras
Cuba
12
3
Model edge
1
Dafabet
Market odd
1.16
Fair odd
1.15
Edge
0.9%
Stake
2.84u
That ticket matched the final outcome.