Postmatch editorial

The prices said close and the pitch agreed

The final score was Honduras 0-0 Costa Rica. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.

Neither Honduras nor Costa Rica found a breakthrough, so the game stayed goalless all the way through.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Honduras led Corners 2-0, even though the scoreboard went another way. Honduras also shaded Possession 72%-28%.

Before kickoff, our model made Honduras the likeliest result at 53.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Costa Rica at 41.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.1%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Pncl. The market was offering 2.69 against a fair line of 2.56. That translated to an edge of 5.1% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Honduras

53.2%

Miss

Market result

Costa Rica

41.9%

Miss

BTTS

No

50.1%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

Honduras

Honduras

Costa Rica

2

0

Possession

Honduras

Honduras

Costa Rica

72%

28%

Total shots

Honduras

Honduras

Costa Rica

11

5

Model edge

2

Pncl

Market odd

2.69

Fair odd

2.56

Edge

5.1%

Stake

0.67u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.