Postmatch editorial
Honduras made the numbers look right
The final score was Honduras 2-0 Antigua and Barbuda. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Alexy Vega scored 80' for Honduras.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Honduras led Shots on target 11-1. Honduras also shaded Total shots 26-1.
Before kickoff, our model made Honduras the likeliest result at 77.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Honduras at 97.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (50.8%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on X at 1xbet. The market was offering 27.00 against a fair line of 22.90. That translated to an edge of 17.9% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Honduras
77.5%
Market result
Honduras
97.1%
BTTS
Yes
50.8%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
HondurasHonduras
Antigua and Barbuda
11
1
Total shots
HondurasHonduras
Antigua and Barbuda
26
1
Possession
HondurasHonduras
Antigua and Barbuda
82%
18%
Model edge
X
1xbet
Market odd
27.00
Fair odd
22.90
Edge
17.9%
Stake
0.19u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.