Postmatch editorial
Draw found the margin in a finely priced match
The final score was Hellas Verona 0-0 Pisa. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
Neither Hellas Verona nor Pisa found a breakthrough, so the game stayed goalless all the way through.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Pisa led Shots on target 0-3, even though the scoreboard went another way. Pisa also shaded Total shots 3-11.
Before kickoff, our model made Pisa the likeliest result at 36.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Hellas Verona at 39.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (57.3%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Dafabet. The market was offering 3.50 against a fair line of 3.29. That translated to an edge of 6.4% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Pisa
36.3%
Market result
Hellas Verona
39.5%
BTTS
No
57.3%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
PisaHellas Verona
Pisa
0
3
Total shots
PisaHellas Verona
Pisa
3
11
Corners
Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
Pisa
8
4
Model edge
2
Dafabet
Market odd
3.50
Fair odd
3.29
Edge
6.4%
Stake
0.55u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.