Hellas Verona
Fiorentina won after full-time.
0 - 1
FT
Fiorentina
Postmatch editorial
The script held and Fiorentina delivered it
The final score was Hellas Verona 0-1 Fiorentina. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
The decisive turn arrived late when Nicolò Fagioli scored 82' for Fiorentina.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Hellas Verona led Shots on target 8-1, even though the scoreboard went another way. Hellas Verona also shaded Total shots 21-5.
Before kickoff, our model made Fiorentina the likeliest result at 55.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Fiorentina at 47.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (50.8%), and that angle missed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Fiorentina
55.3%
Market result
Fiorentina
47.6%
BTTS
Yes
50.8%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
Fiorentina
8
1
Total shots
Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
Fiorentina
21
5
Corners
Hellas VeronaHellas Verona
Fiorentina
9
1
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.