Postmatch editorial

One side of the split call landed for Heidenheim

The final score was Heidenheim 2-0 St. Pauli. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

The decisive turn arrived late when Eren Dinkçi scored 82' for Heidenheim.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Heidenheim led Shots on target 5-2. St. Pauli also shaded Possession 45%-55%.

Before kickoff, our model made St. Pauli the likeliest result at 37.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Heidenheim at 43.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (53.3%), and that angle missed.

Prediction checks

Model result

St. Pauli

37.3%

Miss

Market result

Heidenheim

43.5%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

53.3%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Heidenheim

Heidenheim

St. Pauli

5

2

Possession

St. Pauli

Heidenheim

St. Pauli

45%

55%

Total shots

Heidenheim

Heidenheim

St. Pauli

12

11

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.