Postmatch editorial

One side of the split call landed for FSV Mainz 05

The final score was Heidenheim 0-2 FSV Mainz 05. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Phillip Tietz put the first mark on the match 7', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: FSV Mainz 05 led Shots on target 5-9. Heidenheim also shaded Corners 6-3.

Before kickoff, our model made FSV Mainz 05 the likeliest result at 43.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Heidenheim at 51.8% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (57.9%), and that angle missed.

Prediction checks

Model result

FSV Mainz 05

43.8%

Hit

Market result

Heidenheim

51.8%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

57.9%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

FSV Mainz 05

Heidenheim

FSV Mainz 05

5

9

Corners

Heidenheim

Heidenheim

FSV Mainz 05

6

3

Possession

Heidenheim

Heidenheim

FSV Mainz 05

53%

47%

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.