Heidenheim
Heidenheim won after full-time.
3 - 1
FT
FC Union Berlin
Postmatch editorial
Heidenheim bent the night away from the script
The final score was Heidenheim 3-1 FC Union Berlin. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
The decisive turn arrived late when Budu Zivzivadze scored 79' for Heidenheim.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: FC Union Berlin led Total shots 7-10, even though the scoreboard went another way. FC Union Berlin also shaded Corners 3-5.
Before kickoff, our model made FC Union Berlin the likeliest result at 52.0%, while the median bookmaker line priced FC Union Berlin at 39.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (57.0%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
FC Union Berlin
52.0%
Market result
FC Union Berlin
39.1%
BTTS
Yes
57.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
FC Union BerlinHeidenheim
FC Union Berlin
7
10
Corners
FC Union BerlinHeidenheim
FC Union Berlin
3
5
Possession
FC Union BerlinHeidenheim
FC Union Berlin
45%
55%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.