Postmatch editorial

The prices said close and the pitch agreed

The final score was Heidenheim 3-3 Bayer 04 Leverkusen. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.

The late equaliser came from Marvin Pieringer 85', which kept the game level at the finish.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Bayer 04 Leverkusen led Corners 2-5, even though the scoreboard went another way. Bayer 04 Leverkusen also shaded Possession 37%-63%.

Before kickoff, our model made Bayer 04 Leverkusen the likeliest result at 62.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 65.4% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.9%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Interwetten. The market was offering 6.25 against a fair line of 5.70. That translated to an edge of 9.6% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

62.2%

Miss

Market result

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

65.4%

Miss

BTTS

No

50.9%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Heidenheim

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

2

5

Possession

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Heidenheim

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

37%

63%

Total shots

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Heidenheim

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

9

14

Model edge

1

Interwetten

Market odd

6.25

Fair odd

5.70

Edge

9.6%

Stake

0.37u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.