Hamburger SV
TSG Hoffenheim won after full-time.
1 - 2
FT
TSG Hoffenheim
Postmatch editorial
TSG Hoffenheim made the numbers look right
The final score was Hamburger SV 1-2 TSG Hoffenheim. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Fisnik Asllani put the first mark on the match 18', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: TSG Hoffenheim led Shots on target 4-6. TSG Hoffenheim also shaded Corners 4-9.
Before kickoff, our model made TSG Hoffenheim the likeliest result at 38.9%, while the median bookmaker line priced TSG Hoffenheim at 59.2% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (57.2%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
TSG Hoffenheim
38.9%
Market result
TSG Hoffenheim
59.2%
BTTS
Yes
57.2%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
TSG HoffenheimHamburger SV
TSG Hoffenheim
4
6
Corners
TSG HoffenheimHamburger SV
TSG Hoffenheim
4
9
Possession
TSG HoffenheimHamburger SV
TSG Hoffenheim
41%
59%
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.