Hamburger SV
Hamburger SV won after full-time.
3 - 2
FT
SC Freiburg
Postmatch editorial
One side of the split call landed for Hamburger SV
The final score was Hamburger SV 3-2 SC Freiburg. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.
Bakery Jatta put the first mark on the match 14', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Hamburger SV led Total shots 14-5. Hamburger SV also shaded Shots on target 5-3.
Before kickoff, our model made Hamburger SV the likeliest result at 39.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced SC Freiburg at 44.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (57.9%), and that angle landed.
Prediction checks
Model result
Hamburger SV
39.3%
Market result
SC Freiburg
44.1%
BTTS
Yes
57.9%
Key stats
Match numbers
Total shots
Hamburger SVHamburger SV
SC Freiburg
14
5
Shots on target
Hamburger SVHamburger SV
SC Freiburg
5
3
Corners
SC FreiburgHamburger SV
SC Freiburg
2
4
Value angle
No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.