Postmatch editorial

One side of the split call landed for RB Leipzig

The final score was Hamburger SV 1-2 RB Leipzig. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Hamburger SV struck first through Fábio Vieira 22', but RB Leipzig recovered and flipped the match.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: RB Leipzig led Shots on target 3-5. RB Leipzig also shaded Total shots 7-13.

Before kickoff, our model made Hamburger SV the likeliest result at 39.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced RB Leipzig at 53.1% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (56.4%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Bet365. The market was offering 3.80 against a fair line of 3.55. That translated to an edge of 7.0% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Hamburger SV

39.2%

Miss

Market result

RB Leipzig

53.1%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

56.4%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

RB Leipzig

Hamburger SV

RB Leipzig

3

5

Total shots

RB Leipzig

Hamburger SV

RB Leipzig

7

13

Corners

RB Leipzig

Hamburger SV

RB Leipzig

4

9

Model edge

1

Bet365

Market odd

3.80

Fair odd

3.55

Edge

7.0%

Stake

0.51u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.