Postmatch editorial

Bayer 04 Leverkusen made the numbers look right

The final score was Hamburger SV 0-1 Bayer 04 Leverkusen. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Christian Kofane put the first mark on the match 73', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Bayer 04 Leverkusen led Corners 2-7. Bayer 04 Leverkusen also shaded Possession 37%-63%.

Before kickoff, our model made Bayer 04 Leverkusen the likeliest result at 39.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Bayer 04 Leverkusen at 49.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (57.4%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Mansionbet. The market was offering 2.17 against a fair line of 2.09. That translated to an edge of 3.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

39.4%

Hit

Market result

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

49.6%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

57.4%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Corners

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Hamburger SV

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

2

7

Possession

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Hamburger SV

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

37%

63%

Shots on target

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

Hamburger SV

Bayer 04 Leverkusen

3

4

Model edge

2

Mansionbet

Market odd

2.17

Fair odd

2.09

Edge

3.8%

Stake

0.83u

That ticket matched the final outcome.