Postmatch editorial

The script held and Haiti delivered it

The final score was Haiti 2-1 St. Lucia. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

St. Lucia struck first through Caniggia Elva 18', but Haiti recovered and flipped the match.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Haiti led Total shots 33-3. Haiti also shaded Shots on target 6-2.

Before kickoff, our model made Haiti the likeliest result at 40.7%, while the median bookmaker line priced Haiti at 90.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (57.2%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Betregal. The market was offering 1.37 against a fair line of 1.35. That translated to an edge of 1.5% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Haiti

40.7%

Hit

Market result

Haiti

90.9%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

57.2%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Haiti

Haiti

St. Lucia

33

3

Shots on target

Haiti

Haiti

St. Lucia

6

2

Corners

Haiti

Haiti

St. Lucia

9

3

Model edge

1

Betregal

Market odd

1.37

Fair odd

1.35

Edge

1.5%

Stake

2.54u

That ticket matched the final outcome.