Postmatch editorial

The script held and Scotland delivered it

The final score was Haiti 0-1 Scotland. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

John McGinn put the first mark on the match 28', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Haiti led Total shots 15-9, even though the scoreboard went another way. Haiti also shaded Corners 4-3.

Before kickoff, our model made Scotland the likeliest result at 47.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Scotland at 64.5% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (57.9%), and that angle missed.

Prediction checks

Model result

Scotland

47.2%

Hit

Market result

Scotland

64.5%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

57.9%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Total shots

Haiti

Haiti

Scotland

15

9

Corners

Haiti

Haiti

Scotland

4

3

Possession

Haiti

Haiti

Scotland

54%

46%

Value angle

No structured value bet was flagged before kickoff, so this one closed without a dedicated price angle.