Postmatch editorial

Haiti turned the pre-match edge into points

The final score was Haiti 2-0 Nicaragua. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

Louicius Deedson put the first mark on the match 9', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Haiti led Shots on target 4-3. Nicaragua also shaded Corners 3-4.

Before kickoff, our model made Haiti the likeliest result at 63.8%, while the median bookmaker line priced Haiti at 83.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (51.2%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Unibet. The market was offering 1.27 against a fair line of 1.25. That translated to an edge of 1.6% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Haiti

63.8%

Hit

Market result

Haiti

83.3%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

51.2%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Haiti

Haiti

Nicaragua

4

3

Corners

Nicaragua

Haiti

Nicaragua

3

4

Possession

Haiti

Haiti

Nicaragua

51%

49%

Model edge

1

Unibet

Market odd

1.27

Fair odd

1.25

Edge

1.6%

Stake

1.92u

That ticket matched the final outcome.