Postmatch editorial

The prices said close and the pitch agreed

The final score was Haiti 0-0 Honduras. The draw was not the loudest pre-match angle, but the game never fully escaped its balance.

Neither Haiti nor Honduras found a breakthrough, so the game stayed goalless all the way through.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Haiti led Shots on target 7-3, even though the scoreboard went another way. Haiti also shaded Corners 8-5.

Before kickoff, our model made Haiti the likeliest result at 51.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Honduras at 38.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (64.7%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Bet365. The market was offering 2.80 against a fair line of 2.66. That translated to an edge of 5.3% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Haiti

51.5%

Miss

Market result

Honduras

38.6%

Miss

BTTS

Yes

64.7%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Haiti

Haiti

Honduras

7

3

Corners

Haiti

Haiti

Honduras

8

5

Possession

Honduras

Haiti

Honduras

45%

55%

Model edge

1

Bet365

Market odd

2.80

Fair odd

2.66

Edge

5.3%

Stake

0.65u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.