Postmatch editorial

One side of the split call landed for Haiti

The final score was Haiti 1-0 Costa Rica. The model and the market were not perfectly aligned, but one side of that divide ended up cashing out.

Frantzdy Pierrot put the first mark on the match 44', setting the tone for the rest of the night.

The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Costa Rica led Shots on target 3-6, even though the scoreboard went another way. Costa Rica also shaded Corners 1-7.

Before kickoff, our model made Haiti the likeliest result at 46.2%, while the median bookmaker line priced Costa Rica at 54.9% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (50.3%), and that angle landed.

The model still found a small price edge on 2 at 188bet. The market was offering 2.08 against a fair line of 2.01. That translated to an edge of 3.5% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.

Prediction checks

Model result

Haiti

46.2%

Hit

Market result

Costa Rica

54.9%

Miss

BTTS

No

50.3%

Hit
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Costa Rica

Haiti

Costa Rica

3

6

Corners

Costa Rica

Haiti

Costa Rica

1

7

Total shots

Costa Rica

Haiti

Costa Rica

8

14

Model edge

2

188bet

Market odd

2.08

Fair odd

2.01

Edge

3.5%

Stake

0.91u

The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.