Postmatch editorial

Haiti made the numbers look right

The final score was Haiti 2-0 Belize. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.

The decisive turn arrived late when Steven Seance scored 80' for Haiti.

The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Haiti led Shots on target 5-1. Haiti also shaded Corners 9-2.

Before kickoff, our model made Haiti the likeliest result at 44.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Haiti at 89.3% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (54.7%), and that angle missed.

The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Dafabet. The market was offering 1.18 against a fair line of 1.17. That translated to an edge of 0.9% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.

Prediction checks

Model result

Haiti

44.5%

Hit

Market result

Haiti

89.3%

Hit

BTTS

Yes

54.7%

Miss
Key stats

Match numbers

Shots on target

Haiti

Haiti

Belize

5

1

Corners

Haiti

Haiti

Belize

9

2

Possession

Haiti

Haiti

Belize

67%

33%

Model edge

1

Dafabet

Market odd

1.18

Fair odd

1.17

Edge

0.9%

Stake

2.40u

That ticket matched the final outcome.