Postmatch editorial
Puerto Rico bent the night away from the script
The final score was Guyana 0-2 Puerto Rico. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
Wilfredo Rivera put the first mark on the match 12', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
Before kickoff, our model made Guyana the likeliest result at 49.5%, while the median bookmaker line priced Guyana at 47.6% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (63.0%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 2 at Betsson. The market was offering 3.40 against a fair line of 3.20. That translated to an edge of 6.2% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Guyana
49.5%
Market result
Guyana
47.6%
BTTS
Yes
63.0%
Key stats
Match numbers
No reliable match statistics were returned for this game.
Model edge
2
Betsson
Market odd
3.40
Fair odd
3.20
Edge
6.2%
Stake
0.57u
That ticket matched the final outcome.