Postmatch editorial
The script held and Guyana delivered it
The final score was Guyana 3-0 Montserrat. The strongest pre-match signals were already leaning toward that outcome.
Nathan Ferguson put the first mark on the match 36', setting the tone for the rest of the night.
The numbers leaned the same way as the scoreline: Guyana led Shots on target 11-2. Guyana also shaded Total shots 17-7.
Before kickoff, our model made Guyana the likeliest result at 67.3%, while the median bookmaker line priced Guyana at 59.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned Yes (58.6%), and that angle missed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Williamhill. The market was offering 1.83 against a fair line of 1.78. That translated to an edge of 2.8% before kickoff. That ticket matched the final outcome.
Prediction checks
Model result
Guyana
67.3%
Market result
Guyana
59.0%
BTTS
Yes
58.6%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
GuyanaGuyana
Montserrat
11
2
Total shots
GuyanaGuyana
Montserrat
17
7
Corners
GuyanaGuyana
Montserrat
4
2
Model edge
1
Williamhill
Market odd
1.83
Fair odd
1.78
Edge
2.8%
Stake
0.99u
That ticket matched the final outcome.