Postmatch editorial
Mozambique bent the night away from the script
The final score was Guinea 0-1 Mozambique. It landed away from the main pre-match lean and counts as a genuine twist in the numbers.
The decisive turn arrived late when Geny Catamo scored 90+3' for Mozambique.
The raw numbers were a little messier than the result: Guinea led Shots on target 6-5, even though the scoreboard went another way. Guinea also shaded Corners 6-5.
Before kickoff, our model made Guinea the likeliest result at 60.4%, while the median bookmaker line priced Guinea at 58.0% implied. On BTTS, the model leaned No (52.9%), and that angle landed.
The model still found a small price edge on 1 at Dafabet. The market was offering 1.82 against a fair line of 1.77. That translated to an edge of 2.8% before kickoff. The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.
Prediction checks
Model result
Guinea
60.4%
Market result
Guinea
58.0%
BTTS
No
52.9%
Key stats
Match numbers
Shots on target
GuineaGuinea
Mozambique
6
5
Corners
GuineaGuinea
Mozambique
6
5
Possession
Guinea
Mozambique
50%
50%
Model edge
1
Dafabet
Market odd
1.82
Fair odd
1.77
Edge
2.8%
Stake
1.00u
The price edge was there, but the final result did not follow it.